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 Lot of talk lately about bellwether (1)

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Chinaman(2982) pic

Lot of talk lately about bellwether

What is this bellwether term that is being tossed about. Did the bellwether come to fruition.
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Two definitions of the term.

"the leading sheep of a flock, with a bell on its neck."

"an indicator or predictor of something."

Which definition defines the term that has been tossed around.