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From the Christian religion...
If you think of hell as a punishment, then you need to change your paradigm.
"The wages of sin is death."
Basically, this means that the consequence of sin is hell, not the punishment.
If you put enough pressure on a ruler, it breaks. If you stay underwater too long, you will drown.
Fortunately, this is where Jesus Christ comes in to save us from our sins so we can go to heaven by grace.
Wrong Perspective: Hell is a punishment where bad people go to.
Right Perspective: Heaven is a blessing that nobody is worthy for.
The difference between atheists/agnostics and religious people is the source of their moral compass. Atheists/agnostics likely get it from the laws and their consciences. Christians get it from the Bible. They are all effective moral compasses.
However, being a Christian myself, I would have to say that Christians have a stronger moral compass because the Bible is the best moral compass. Atheists/agnostics can have a moral compass, but it would need to be based off of something other than the Bible. It's like the difference between an interview with a soldier from a war and a documentary about that war.
On the contrary, you did some calculations wrong. I think you forgot to multiply by 100 to get the percentage. But anyway...
There is some statistical chance, but it is low. However, it is comparable to the chance of getting killed by a shark, and is significantly higher than getting killed by a falling meteor.